What a second Trump presidency could mean for the defense budget

Former president Donald Trump received reelection Tuesday, an evening of voting that led to Republicans taking management of the Senate and doubtlessly holding their Home majority.

The prospect for a governing trifecta, which might repeat the primary two years of Trump’s time period, already has some in Congress, the Pentagon and suppose tanks questioning what it means for the protection funds.

Whereas it’s too early to forecast with confidence, analysts who spoke to Protection Information stated, the return of a Trump presidency will possible augur a bigger protection funds, although much less safety support for American companions overseas like Ukraine.

A part of why its so tough to foretell the consequences of a second Trump time period is that there’s much less Republican consensus on protection spending, stated Mark Cancian, who research safety budgets on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research.

Whereas the correct as soon as virtually uniformly supported increased army spending, it’s now break up into three most important camps, he argued.

The primary is conventional protection hawks, resembling former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who favor a extra assertive army and funding to help one. The second is funds hawks, just like the Home Freedom Caucus, who’re most involved with bloated authorities spending and would in some circumstances favor cuts.

And the third is the “America First” wing of the Republican Get together, resembling Trump’s closing appearing Secretary of Protection Chris Miller, who’re skeptical that America’s army wants to keep up so many missions world wide, and may help cuts.

What faction will prevail received’t begin to change into clear till a future Trump Cupboard is about, Cancian stated.

“Till we get some sense of that, we’re simply guessing,” he stated.

Clear telltales would be the nominees to change into secretary of protection and director of the Workplace of Administration and Funds, stated Mackenzie Eaglen, an professional on the protection funds on the American Enterprise Institute.

“The very first thing that issues is the OMB director,” she stated, noting the workplace’s function in managing authorities funds requests.

By Eaglen’s rely, Trump oversaw a large hike in protection spending throughout his first time period — some $225 billion increased than projected from the late Obama years. Protection hawks in Congress are relying on a repeat of that development, and can have extra energy to drive it.

Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., revealed a memo earlier this yr calling for a $55 billion surge in protection spending. The paper helped enhance the Senate Armed Providers Committee funds invoice, although by lower than half that quantity. With Republicans taking management of the Senate, Wicker will now chair that committee and might push for additional will increase.

Republican aides in Congress, when requested by Protection Information, signaled confidence {that a} second Trump time period would enhance the army funds, although cautioning that it’s nonetheless too early to foretell.

Congress hasn’t handed both of its two most important protection payments this fiscal yr, as an alternative working on a short-term spending invoice that lasts via December.

Whereas these will in all chance cross finally, now that management of each chamber is changing into clear, the massive safety support packages America has been sending to Ukraine are far much less sure. The U.S. has dedicated greater than $60 billion in safety support to this point in the course of the Biden administration — a lot of it going to American arms firms — gleaned from further spending payments handed by Congress.

“Will there be any extra supplementals?” Eaglen stated, arguing that Taiwan and Israel had higher possibilities of sustaining American support.

Trump has stated his most important precedence is ending the battle with Russia, with out committing to an final result first. If Trump did abruptly finish American help, it additionally dangers a whiplash for protection corporations which have expanded their product strains to fulfill Ukraine’s wants, Cancian stated.

“That’s business’s nice fear,” Cancian stated, although he was skeptical the shift could be too abrupt for corporations to regulate.