The so-called Thucydides Entice has turn out to be a staple of overseas coverage commentary over the previous decade or so, commonly invoked to border the escalating rivalry between the US and China.
Coined by political scientist Graham Allison — first in a 2012 Monetary Occasions article and later developed in his 2017 guide “Destined for Battle” — the phrase refers to a line from the traditional Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote in his “Historical past of the Peloponnesian Battle,” “It was the rise of Athens and the worry that this instilled in Sparta that made conflict inevitable.”
At first look, this supplies a compelling and conveniently packaged analogy: Rising powers provoke nervousness in established ones, resulting in battle. In at the moment’s context, the implication appears clear – China’s rise is certain to impress a collision with the US, simply as Athens as soon as did with Sparta.
However this framing dangers flattening the complexity of Thucydides’ work and distorting its deeper philosophical message. Thucydides wasn’t articulating a deterministic legislation of geopolitics. He was writing a tragedy.
Historical past repeats as tragedy?
Thucydides fought within the Peloponnesian Battle on the Athenian aspect. His world was steeped within the sensibilities of Greek tragedy, and his historic narrative carries that imprint all through. His work just isn’t a treatise on structural inevitability however an exploration of how human frailty, political misjudgment and ethical decay can mix to unleash disaster.
That tragic sensibility issues. The place fashionable analysts usually seek for predictive patterns and system-level explanations, Thucydides drew consideration to the position of alternative, notion and emotion. His historical past is stuffed with the corrosive results of worry, the seductions of ambition, the failures of management and the tragic unraveling of judgment. It is a research in hubris and nemesis, not structural determinism.
A lot of that is misplaced when the phrase “Thucydides Entice” is elevated right into a type of quasi-law of worldwide politics. It turns into shorthand for inevitability: energy rises, worry responds, conflict follows.
However Thucydides himself was extra occupied with why worry takes maintain, how ambition twists judgment and the way leaders — trapped in a narrowing hall of unhealthy choices — persuade themselves that conflict is the one viable path left. His narrative exhibits how battle usually arises not from necessity, however from misreading, miscalculation and passions unmoored from cause.
Even Allison, to his credit score, by no means claimed the “lure” was inescapable. His core argument was that conflict is probably going however not inevitable when a rising energy challenges a dominant one. Actually, a lot of Allison’s writing serves as a warning to interrupt from the sample, to not resign oneself to it.
AP Photograph/Dmitri Lovetsky
In that sense, the “Thucydides Entice” has been misused by commentators and policymakers alike. Some deal with it as affirmation that conflict is baked into the construction of energy transitions — an excuse to lift protection budgets or to speak powerful with Beijing — when actually it ought to impress reflection and restraint.
To learn Thucydides rigorously is to see that the Peloponnesian Battle was not solely a couple of shifting stability of energy. It was additionally about pleasure, misjudgment and the failure to steer properly.
Take into account his well-known commentary, “Ignorance is daring and data reserved.” This isn’t a structural perception — it’s a human one. It’s aimed squarely at those that mistake impulse for technique and swagger for power. Or take his chilling formulation, “The sturdy do what they may and the weak undergo what they need to.” That’s not an endorsement of realpolitik. It’s a tragic lament on what occurs when energy turns into unaccountable and justice is solid apart.
Seen on this mild, the actual lesson of Thucydides just isn’t that conflict is preordained, however that it turns into extra seemingly when nations permit worry to cloud cause, when leaders mistake posturing for prudence and when strategic selections are pushed by insecurity slightly than readability.
Thucydides reminds us how simply notion curdles into misperception — and the way harmful it’s when leaders, satisfied of their very own advantage or necessity, cease listening to anybody who disagrees.
Dan Kitwood/Getty Pictures
The actual classes of Thucydides
In at the moment’s context, invoking the Thucydides Entice as a justification for confrontation with China could do extra hurt than good. It reinforces the notion that battle is already on the rails and can’t be stopped. But when there’s a lesson in “The Historical past of the Peloponnesian Battle,” it isn’t that conflict is inevitable however that it turns into seemingly when the house for prudence and reflection collapses underneath the load of worry and pleasure. Thucydides presents not a concept of worldwide politics, however a warning — an admonition to leaders who, gripped by their very own narratives, drive their nations over a cliff.
Avoiding that destiny requires higher judgment. And above all, it calls for the humility to acknowledge that the long run just isn’t decided by structural pressures alone, however by the alternatives folks make.
This text is a part of a collection explaining overseas coverage phrases generally used, however hardly ever defined.
