Trump Doctrine 2.0: What It Means for the Middle East

International locations throughout the Center East are making strikes and making ready for President Donald Trump’s incoming United States administration. Lots of the area’s leaders have been in energy through the first Trump administration and can search to attain their targets by working with the White Home over the following 4 years. It’s important to bridge relations as a result of international locations have come to count on flexibility and progressive coverage choices from Trump and his group.

Then again, some international locations may search to take advantage of the changeover to push for main shifts in US coverage.

Incoming Trump Administration and Overseas Relations 

Leaders within the Center East who recall the primary administration will bear in mind a time when private relationships with Trump and adaptability to shift US coverage shortly have been hallmarks of the 2016-2020 period. These efforts resulted within the Abraham Accords peace offers between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Nevertheless, it additionally resulted in risk-taking by Ankara in Syria, which led to a number of crises between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. International locations will look to see which sort of Trump doctrine emerges proper out of the gate when the brand new group takes workplace.

Relations with Isreal

Trump has indicated that on the prime of the listing of priorities will be the winding down of the conflict in Gaza. This conflict started with the Hamas assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, through which Hamas massacred greater than 1,000 folks and took 250 hostages. The group continues to carry 100 hostages. Trump has warned Hamas that it should launch the hostages, together with American hostages it holds, or “all hell will escape.”

Israel perceives the incoming administration as a detailed and supportive accomplice. There will likely be expectations that any criticism that emanated from the Biden group, or any slowdowns in munitions deliveries for Israel, will now finish. Ostensibly, it will give Israel extra flexibility to function on a number of fronts, similar to towards the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen or to strain Hezbollah to stick to a ceasefire, which expires in late January. Within the West Financial institution, growing terror assaults by teams similar to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad danger escalating right into a wider battle.

It’s doable that below a brand new Trump administration, Israel will really feel extra free rein to clamp down on threats within the West Financial institution. It’s not clear how that may play out with the Palestinian Authority, whose safety forces have been backed and skilled by the US during the last many years. The PA, supported by different pals of the US, similar to Jordan and key Gulf states, would possible need the Trump administration to assist it stay intact over the following a number of years. The PA’s getting older chief, Mahmoud Abbas, might want to discover a successor and assure stability if issues are to stay secure within the West Financial institution.

The Incoming Administration and the Center East

The Kingdom of Jordan angled for help from the primary Trump administration early on. King Abdullah II traveled to Washington quickly after Trump’s inauguration in 2017 to be the primary Center Japanese chief to satisfy with Trump. In 2025, the Kingdom as soon as once more finds itself at a crossroads. A brand new authorities in Syria has left Jordan questioning if stability will prevail in Damascus or if winds of change will threaten Amman. What meaning is that Jordan continues to host giant numbers of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime. Jordan has traditionally backed the Syrian rebels, teams who now share energy in Damascus. Amman will need to see its pals in southern Syria play a higher function in Damascus. On the similar time, Jordan hosts US forces. In January 2024, the Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah killed three People in Jordan utilizing a drone flown from Iraq. It’s value recalling that Trump ordered the drone strike that killed the chief of Kataib Hezbollah, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in January 2020. Muhandis was in the identical automobile as IRGC Quds Drive head Qasem Soleimani, who was the principle goal and was additionally killed.

Lebanon and Syria are two international locations within the area with new management awaiting the brand new administration. The outgoing Biden administration has sought to have interaction with the brand new management in Damascus. Trump’s group might want to thread a fancy needle in Syria. On the one hand, Damascus will possible need to showcase itself as a possible accomplice for the US. Ahmed Shara’a, the chief of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who got here to energy in Damascus on December 8, had beforehand sought outreach to the US when he was operating Idlib in northwest Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham possible noticed the previous Trump administration’s group, together with James Jeffrey, Particular Consultant for Syria Engagement, as a optimistic drive. He’ll need to have interaction with Washington more and more.

In japanese Syria, the Trump administration will inherit the anti-ISIS mission that it sought to roll again in 2019. This can depart the Syrian Democratic Forces, who’ve been backed by the US to combat ISIS, in a troublesome spot. They’ll hope that the brand new Trump group will need to proceed to play a job in japanese Syria. If not, they know they might face a brand new Turkish invasion and a troublesome time coming to an settlement with the brand new rulers in Damascus.

In Lebanon, the brand new president, Joseph Aoun, who was previously a army commander, is looking for to painting himself as a pal of the West who’s prepared to remove weapons from Hezbollah. He’s paying lip service to a mission that the Lebanese authorities has by no means been in a position to accomplish up to now. He’s hoping to obtain elevated help for Washington. The query is whether or not he can really obtain any elementary modifications in Lebanon in comparison with previous administrations.

Different regional leaders, similar to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, are accustomed to Trump. Each noticed the primary administration in a optimistic mild. Nevertheless, each sought to take advantage of the primary administration’s insurance policies by taking dangers. Egypt, as an illustration, has performed a job in japanese Libya. Turkey additionally performed an elevated function in Libya, signing a maritime take care of the leaders in western Libya, and turning into more and more aggressive towards Greece and Cyprus within the japanese Mediterranean. Ankara’s insurance policies led to a number of crises through the first Trump administration, together with the detention of an American pastor and two Turkish incursions into Syria. It stays to be seen whether or not Erdogan and Sisi will shift their insurance policies now or see a brand new administration as a inexperienced mild to function extra freely of their respective spheres.

In Iran and Iraq, there will likely be preparations for a brand new administration that’s prepared to extend sanctions on Iran. Sanctions towards Iran will have an effect on Iraq as effectively as a result of Iraq has been carefully aligned with Iran in recent times. US forces are nonetheless primarily based in Iraq, together with within the autonomous Kurdistan Area. The Kurdistan Area will need elevated US help. Baghdad might really feel it has a window to stability its ties with Iran and the US by getting one thing from each.

Within the Gulf, the incoming administration will likely be seen as optimistic. Through the earlier Trump administration, there was a disaster within the Gulf when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain minimize ties with Qatar. This time round, it may be anticipated that these international locations may have discovered from that have, which didn’t profit them very a lot, and search a unique path ahead. The UAE and Bahrain have peace with Israel because of the Trump-backed Abraham Accords. There may very well be expectations to develop these Accords. The Biden administration had no luck increasing them to Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, Riyadh will possible need one thing vital in return for peace with Israel. This sort of dealmaking has been a trademark of Trump up to now. International locations within the area will likely be seeking to see if it should happen sooner or later.

Concerning the Writer: Seth Frantzman 

Seth Frantzman is the creator of The October 7 Struggle: Israel’s Battle for Safety in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Basis for Protection of Democracies. He’s a Senior Center East Analyst for The Jerusalem Submit. Seth is now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.