Think Trump and Joe Biden Are Old? Wait for Iran’s Next Supreme Leader

President Ebrahim Raisi’s loss of life in a Could 19, 2024 helicopter crash upended the race for a brand new supreme chief. Raisi was not solely the president, however he was on a dry run to exchange Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old who sits atop the Iranian hierarchy. Raisi had the appropriate CV. On the Qom Seminary, he studied underneath a string of prime ayatollahs. He subsequently turned prosecutor-general and managed the Astan Quds Razavi, the multibillion-dollar spiritual basis that additionally manages the Shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad.

Importantly, he was not associated to Khamenei. Whereas Khamenei has helped maneuver son Mojtaba into a chief place to exchange him, hereditary succession stays taboo. In any case, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini repeatedly cited the hereditary nature of the Shah’s regime to delegitimize the monarchy. Khamenei should still favor his son, however he lacks the spiritual authority that Khomeini as soon as needed to impose his alternative except he’s prepared to nominate him previous to his loss of life. Regardless, when Khamenei dies, so too does his leverage.

If Mojtaba can not succeed instantly, the Islamic Republic would possibly go down the Soviet Union’s path. Leonid Brezhnev, like Khamenei, consolidated energy after a turbulent transition. Stagnation characterised Brezhnev’s close to twenty years in energy. American diplomats sought engagement, however efforts at détente failed upon the unwillingness of Soviet leaders to solid apart ideology or have interaction sincerely.

When Brezhnev handed at age 75, a full decade youthful than Khamenei is now, the baton handed to the previous KGB chief Yuri Andropov. At simply 68 years outdated, Andropov could have been a spring hen by Soviet requirements, he already suffered diabetes and kidney illness as he ascended to the highest submit. It shocked nobody, at the least from throughout the Soviet management circles, when he died quickly after. Konstantin Chernenko, three years’ Andropov’s elder, took over however lasted little greater than a yr. After the parade of outdated males, Mikhail Gorbachev, who had simply turned 54, appeared a breath of contemporary air although he served the identical ideology as his predecessors.

Again to Iran: Mojtaba right this moment is only a yr older than Gorbachev was upon taking workplace; he has time. The hazard for Mojtaba can be if a younger rival turned supreme chief and, like Khamenei, managed to consolidate energy. To obviate this chance, Khamenei would possibly select an instantaneous successor whose age precludes any consolidation of actual energy. I requested Saeid Golkar, a professor on the College of Tennessee-Chattanooga and one of the astute analysts of Iranian politics, and he prompt the 99-year-old Grand Ayatollah Hossein Noori Hamedani. For Khamenei, maneuvering Hamedani as successor might have two benefits. First, he mirrors Khamenei’s hardline positions; he can be no “Ayatollah Gorbachev.” Second, Iranians despise him and so would have little grassroots assist. Ahmad Jannati, a spry 97-year-old chaired the Meeting of Consultants till final month, and stays secretary of the Guardian Council. His successor as chairman of the Meeting of Consultants, Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani, is 92.

Even when the Meeting appoints a nonagenarian who lasts solely weeks or months within the management, his interlude would allow Mojtaba’s supporters to disclaim hereditary succession. There has at all times been a category facet to Iranian clergy: Some households are distinguished throughout generations—the Shirazis Ashtianis, and Tabatabai—and historically slam the door on upstarts from poor households, irrespective of how proficient and pious they could be. Subsequently, having two Khameneis wouldn’t elevate too many eyebrows as long as they weren’t consecutive.

American officers and their European counterparts could challenge their very own need for liberalism and reform onto the Islamic Republic. As long as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stays a cohesive power prepared to repress citizenry with brutality, the need of extraordinary Iranians for change is not going to succeed. Hope that Khamenei’s ambition to maintain energy and incumbent fortune in household fingers will lead him to delegitimize the regime additionally could also be wishful considering. Absolutely, Khamenei acknowledges the issue and will use a geriatric interlude to launder his son. After one or two geriatric leaders, Mojtaba will seem rather more palatable to each colleagues and their Iranian base.