Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s decide to guide the Division of Protection, sat in entrance of a display screen with the headline: “Examine Disproves Army Extremism Downside.”
It was Jan. 4 of this yr and Hegseth informed a Fox Information viewers the brand new examine proved that the variety of navy service members and veterans concerned within the Jan. 6, 2021, rebellion didn’t point out a wider downside within the armed forces. The Pentagon-funded report back to which Hegseth referred stated there was no proof the variety of violent extremists within the navy was “disproportionate to extremists within the basic inhabitants.”
“They knew this was a sham,” Hegseth stated, referring to Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin and different navy leaders. “Then they do the examine, which confirms what everyone knows.”
Hegseth, who was working for Fox Information on the time and had no involvement within the report, wasn’t alone. The Wall Avenue Journal’s opinion web page highlighted the identical report as proof that extremists in navy communities had been “phantoms” created by a “false media narrative.” The X account for Republicans on the Home Armed Providers Committee posted that the examine confirmed the concentrate on extremism within the navy was a “witch hunt.”
However The Related Press has discovered that the examine, “Prohibited Extremist Actions within the U.S. Division of Protection” carried out by the Institute for Protection Analyses, relied on outdated information, deceptive analyses and ignored proof that pointed to the alternative conclusion.
In truth, the AP discovered that the IDA report’s authors didn’t use newer information that was supplied to it, and as a substitute based mostly one in all its foundational conclusions on Jan. 6 arrest figures that had been greater than two years outdated by the point of the report’s public launch.
Consequently, the report grossly undercounted the variety of navy and veterans arrested for the Jan. 6 assault and supplied a deceptive image of the severity of the rising downside, the AP has discovered.
Spike in navy extremism
The variety of service members and veterans who radicalize make up a tiny fraction of a proportion level of the thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands who’ve honorably served their nation. But their impression may be massive.
Ordered by Austin after the Jan. 6 rebellion, the IDA analysis was revealed quietly simply earlier than Christmas 2023 — practically 18 months late and with no announcement. Its key advice: The DOD ought to “not overreact and draw too massive of a goal” in its anti-extremism efforts, regardless of Austin’s promise to assault the issue head-on within the wake of Jan. 6.
However IDA’s researchers based mostly a key discovering on an undercount of navy service members and veterans who participated within the Jan. 6 rebellion. The IDA — a longtime accomplice to the Pentagon that has acquired greater than a billion {dollars} in contracts over the previous decade to supply analysis and strategic consulting to the nation’s navy — based mostly this conclusion on arrests made as of Jan. 1, 2022, the yr instantly following the assault. As of that date, 82 of the 704 folks arrested had navy backgrounds, or 11.6% of the whole arrests, IDA reported.
However within the months and years that adopted, the variety of arrestees with a navy background practically tripled.
IDA’s report states that its analysis was carried out from June 2021 by June 2022. By June 2022, the variety of lively or former navy members arrested had grown by practically 50%, in response to the identical dataset IDA cited from the Program on Extremism at George Washington College. When IDA’s report was revealed a yr and a half later, in December 2023, 209 folks with navy backgrounds who attended the rebellion had been arrested, or 15.2% of all arrests.
That has since grown to 18%, in response to information collected by the Nationwide Consortium for the Examine of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, or START, on the College of Maryland. It represents a big statistical improve, and rises above the final inhabitants estimates IDA cited amongst its reasoning for recommending the Pentagon not overreact. START’s analysis was additionally funded by DOD, and different federal companies.
Extra broadly, because the AP reported in an investigation revealed final month, greater than 480 folks with a navy background had been accused of ideologically pushed extremist crimes from 2017 by 2023, together with the greater than 230 arrested in reference to the Jan. 6 rebellion, in response to information collected and analyzed by START. Although these numbers mirror a small fraction of those that have served within the navy — and Austin, the present protection secretary, has stated that extremism isn’t widespread within the U.S. navy — AP’s investigation discovered that plots involving folks with navy backgrounds had been extra more likely to contain mass casualties.
The IDA’s 199-page report conceded that there was “some indication” that the radicalization numbers within the veterans neighborhood could possibly be “barely greater and could also be rising” however stated its evaluation discovered “no proof” that was the case amongst lively obligation troops.
In truth, information present that since 2017 each service members and veterans are radicalizing at a quicker price than folks with out navy coaching. Lower than 1% of the grownup inhabitants is presently serving within the U.S. navy, however lively obligation navy members make up a disproportionate 3.2% of the extremist circumstances START researchers discovered between 2017 and 2022.
Even that quantity is considered an undercount, in response to Michael Jensen, START’s lead researcher. He famous that the navy makes use of administrative discharges to quietly take away extremists from the ranks — such circumstances don’t present up in START’s information as a result of the navy doesn’t launch details about them.
Jensen, who was consulted by IDA for its report and is cited in it 24 occasions, stated utilizing the Jan. 6 arrest information alone, even when calculated appropriately, was not a legitimate method to measuring extremism amongst lively obligation navy.
“J6 is a completely horrible occasion to make use of to attempt to estimate the scope of extremism within the lively service inhabitants since most lively providers members wouldn’t have had the chance to take part in that occasion even when they wished to,” Jensen stated.
Jensen’s statement is underscored by information obtained by AP. One grievance filed to the DOD Inspector Normal’s whistleblower hotline on March 17, 2021, and obtained by a Freedom of Data Act request, stated an lively obligation service member in Germany expressed an curiosity in heading to Washington for Jan. 6, however stated he wasn’t in a position to go due to his navy service.
Screenshots from Fb supplied with the grievance present he informed his cousin, “I might be part of you however my present tour is in Germany,” and stated in one other publish on Jan. 3, 2021, he was contemplating shopping for a aircraft ticket. The grievance stated the service member’s cousin was later arrested.
An IDA spokesman defended the report, for which he stated the corporate was paid $900,000, saying it stays assured that its findings had been “solidly based mostly on the very best information out there on the time the work was carried out.” The AP reached out by electronic mail and LinkedIn messages to a number of folks listed as authors of the report. None supplied remark. A protection official stated the division “is dedicated to sustaining excessive requirements for its information assortment and transparency” and referred particular questions on the methodology and evaluation of the report back to IDA.
Hegseth and Trump’s transition group didn’t reply to emails searching for remark.
Dangerous information, false assertions
IDA’s researchers had been supplied START’s information, Jensen stated, which is extensively thought-about probably the most complete have a look at the problem. IDA’s report even referred to as it “maybe the very best effort to this point” in accumulating information on extremists within the navy. However IDA by no means adopted as much as get it, he stated.
“We confirmed them information from over 30 years once they visited with us, in order that they knew the information had been on the market to take a look at an extended timespan,” Jensen stated. “We supplied it, and supplied to assist in some other means we may, however we by no means heard from them once more after our one and solely assembly.”
The IDA spokesperson stated its researchers relied on stories START revealed that summarized elements of their information by 2021. These stories and the information that underlie all of them discovered “a big uptick” in such circumstances, however IDA failed to notice these findings in its conclusions.
And in some elements of the report, IDA cited START’s numbers from 2018, which had been by then years outdated, and which didn’t absolutely mirror a big improve that started the earlier yr. A footnote says there’s more moderen information, however fails to say Jensen’s supply to supply entry.
AP additionally discovered a number of situations the place IDA made assertions that had been factually inaccurate or incomplete, resulting in questions concerning the rigor of its work, and about whether or not the Pentagon supplied sufficient entry to data.
As one instance, IDA states that “IDA discovered no proof of participation in violent extremist occasions by DOD civilians or protection contractor workers.”
However AP obtained information exhibiting a number of allegations about Jan. 6 alone in opposition to contractors and a civilian worker.
One, made to the Inspector Normal’s workplace on Jan 8, 2021, practically three years earlier than the report was revealed, stated a contractor on the Joint Synthetic Intelligence Heart referred to as in to conferences from the protest on Jan. 6, and had unfold conspiracy theories together with QAnon in addition to others involving synthetic intelligence and the DOD. This grievance resulted within the contractor’s termination.
As well as, there have been extensively publicized circumstances of protection contractors who had been accused of collaborating in Jan. 6, together with a Navy contractor who was a Nazi sympathizer and a former Particular Forces soldier who was a navy contractor.
And in probably the most notable violent extremist occasions within the years previous to Jan. 6, a protection contractor with a safety clearance participated within the Unite the Proper rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017. Michael Miselis, a member of the violent white supremacist group Rise Above Motion, pleaded responsible to federal rioting costs.
The circumstances collectively elevate questions concerning the rigor of the IDA’s report and why it might make such assertions. IDA didn’t clarify why it missed these extensively reported circumstances.
Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the International Challenge In opposition to Hate and Extremism, stated the AP’s evaluation confirmed the IDA report was “a multitude,” with “dangerous information, unsubstantiated conclusions, and false assertions.”
That Hegseth, a former Nationwide Guardsman who himself had been flagged as a possible insider risk for a tattoo on his bicep that has been linked to extremist teams, doesn’t see the significance of rooting out extremism within the ranks is a catastrophe, she stated.
“It’s a disgrace {that a} shoddy report by the Pentagon offers a gap to views like Hegseth’s and can perpetuate a head-in-the-sand method to a severe nationwide safety situation,” stated Beirich, an knowledgeable in extremist actions who has testified earlier than Congress about extremism within the navy.
“Too many terrorist assaults have been perpetrated by active-duty navy and veterans, and ignoring this downside simply makes the American folks much less secure,” she stated. “Making gentle of the issue is finally a risk to the safety of the American folks, and politicizing the issue, which Republicans have accomplished over latest years, means extra violence.”
Aaron Kessler contributed reporting from Washington.
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