North Korea has been suffering from poverty for the reason that Nineteen Nineties, when all the financial system got here to a standstill. Though the financial system has step by step recovered for the reason that 2000s, the newest figures launched by the North Korean authorities present that the nation’s gross home product (GDP) per capita stood at $1,400 in 2019 (Determine 1). North Korea has constantly cited the development of the individuals’s livelihood as the final word financial coverage purpose, but it surely typically took a backseat in precise useful resource allocation. The heavy trade sector was regularly given precedence over mild trade. The funds that remained for the civilian financial system had been channeled at the start to the capital, Pyongyang, earlier than the provinces. Even throughout the provinces, central cities got precedence over these in peripheries. Nevertheless, Kim Jong Un couldn’t indefinitely postpone the event of the provinces, residence to over 80 % of the inhabitants.
It’s in opposition to this backdrop that Kim Jong Un launched the “Regional Growth 20×10 Coverage” (known as the “20×10 Coverage” hereafter), which goals to construct native industrial “modernized factories” in 20 cities and counties per yr over the following 10 years. An unprecedented initiative aimed toward selling regional financial growth, notably regional industries, this undertaking is notable for being North Korea’s first regional growth effort with its personal identify.
On this creator’s opinion, the purpose of the 20×10 Coverage is just not merely to construct a number of good factories within the provinces. It didn’t merely pop up in a single day, both. As an alternative, the North Korean management seems to be attempting to in the end set up a sustainable “regional innovation system” the place industrial services for manufacturing, instructional establishments for coaching personnel and analysis establishments for technological assist, which North Korea has endeavored to construct since 2008, all come collectively to make one complete.
Whereas it could appear that the 20×10 Coverage was abruptly launched in January 2024, it’s an extension of a coverage introduced on the Eighth Occasion Congress in January 2021, which laid out a regional financial growth technique centered on cities and counties. Kimhwa County served because the take a look at case and demonstrated a plan for complete transformation of whole cities and counties reasonably than merely modernizing a number of factories. The 20×10 Coverage builds on that mannequin, underneath each Kim Jong Un’s route and with state, celebration and army backing to assist it.
Launch of the “Regional Growth 20×10 Coverage”
The time period “Regional Growth 20×10 Coverage” first emerged in Kim Jong Un’s coverage speech on January 15, 2024, on the Supreme Folks’s Meeting (SPA), the North Korean parliament. In his speech, Kim defined that the coverage didn’t merely purpose on the modernization of sure factories however a complete transformation of native economies at metropolis and county ranges.
North Korea’s administrative districts are divided into three tiers: 13 provinces (도), roughly 200 cities and counties (시, 군) and round 4,000 ri (리), or villages. Constructing industrial factories in 20 cities and counties yearly over 10 years, subsequently, entails a nationwide transformation, not only a concentrate on Pyongyang or a number of key areas.
At Kim’s proposal, sensible measures for the 20×10 Coverage had been mentioned and determined intimately throughout an enlarged assembly of the Political Bureau of the Employees’ Occasion of Korea (WPK) Central Committee that adopted the SPA session. An intensive examination of Kim’s coverage speech and the Political Bureau assembly readout reveals two distinctive options of this coverage.
First, Kim Jong Un pledged his private duty for and dedication to the 20×10 Coverage. He mentioned:
And I consider establishing a piece for guiding regional trade development within the Organizational Management Division [Organization and Guidance Department; OGD] of the Occasion Central Committee and reviewing its work alone duty and urgent forward with it.[1]
It’s unprecedented for the supreme chief, who technically oversees and supervises all state affairs, to single out and assume duty for a particular undertaking. This underscores his willpower for the undertaking’s success. It additionally signifies that Kim views the undertaking’s complexity and scope as too nice for anybody else to handle.
Second, in a uncommon transfer, North Korea pledged celebration assets and mobilized the army from the outset of this financial undertaking as a substitute of leaving it to the cupboard, which oversees the nationwide financial system. This once more displays the undertaking’s unprecedented scale and complexity.
Kim Jong Un assured that “the Occasion would proceed to offer funds, labor pressure and supplies yearly and compulsorily to every county.” Moreover, as famous above, the WPK established a brand new “part for guiding regional trade development within the Organizational Management Division” to supervise the undertaking. North Korea plans to systematically implement this large-scale undertaking by establishing what Kim known as a “nationwide [국가적] steering work system,” leveraging the celebration’s authority of personnel administration.
On the army entrance, Kim issued the order “On mobilizing items of the Folks’s Military for the wrestle to implement the decision of the nineteenth Enlarged Assembly of the Political Bureau of the Eighth Central Committee of the WPK on bringing a few regional industrial revolution.” North Korea hardly ever pledges army assets firstly of a undertaking. For the reason that annual goal all of the sudden elevated from 4 to twenty cities or counties underneath this undertaking, North Korea, from the outset, mobilized the military, which may most quickly mobilize assets and personnel (see the following paragraph on the unique goal of 4 cities or counties.). To that finish, North Korea organized particular items, “the 124th regiments,” particular to this undertaking and deployed them to development websites.
The 20×10 Coverage could come throughout as a spontaneous undertaking as a result of it all of the sudden appeared in Kim’s SPA speech in January 2024. There was no point out of this coverage in state media’s readout of a celebration plenary assembly held simply two weeks prior, the place the North reviewed the work of 2023 and introduced plans for 2024. Nevertheless, North Korea has been laying the groundwork for this undertaking since a minimum of the Eighth Occasion Congress in 2021, as the following part will discover. Resulting from inadequate personnel, assets and funds, the unique plan was to restrict the undertaking’s scope to at least one metropolis, three counties and roughly 200 factories, an strategy that seems to have been in place even to the top of the celebration plenary assembly in December 2023.
Kimhwa County: A Testbed for the 20×10 Coverage
North Korea made a strategic choice on the Eighth WPK Congress in January 2021 to develop regional economies centered on cities and counties. Accordingly, North Korea launched a pilot undertaking for regional industrial growth in Kimhwa County, Kangwon Province, in March 2021. In line with North Korean media, Kim Jong Un selected Kimhwa County because the preliminary pilot undertaking county attributable to its extreme underdevelopment.[2] Located close to the demilitarized zone, greater than 80 % of Kimhwa County is roofed by mountains, and it lacks vital industrial infrastructure.[3] Moreover, Kimhwa County suffered extreme harm from heavy rains in August 2020. Subsequently, the North Korean management appears to have believed that if the 20×10 Coverage had been modeled after a county as poorly located as Kimhwa, it will be simpler to implement the coverage in different cities and counties with higher circumstances.
As an alternative of conducting partial repairs within the wake of extreme flooding in 2020, North Korea utterly rebuilt broken homes and factories in Kimhwa County. By the top of 2020, North Korea had constructed a brand new village of roughly 100 properties. The regional industrial factories development undertaking, launched in Kimhwa County in March 2021, was accomplished by June 2022. Throughout this course of, North Korea introduced collectively scattered factories into a brand new industrial complicated. The newly constructed factories within the industrial complicated included services for meals, clothes, each day requirements and paper manufacturing.[4] The choice to construct paper factories doubtless stemmed from Kim’s emphasis on the fast growth of schooling at celebration plenary conferences in April 2018 and April 2019. Kim, up to now, has pointed to paper shortages as a key downside within the schooling sector and known as for elevated paper manufacturing.
Conceptually, North Korea promotes the necessity to obtain a “self-supporting” financial system, which means self-sufficiency in gas (vitality), uncooked supplies, manpower and know-how. Nevertheless, in actuality, the extent and method of self-sufficiency can differ. The Kimhwa County case illustrates that self-sufficiency in uncooked supplies and staff was important at a regional degree, however the central authorities supplied essential technological assist. On this creator’s view, this mannequin of central technological assist and regional self-sufficiency in staff and assets could signify a definite characteristic of the continued regional growth coverage.
North Korea, since 2023, has made efforts to disseminate the Kimhwa County mannequin nationwide. In Might 2023, the cupboard established a “non-permanent central committee for selling the reconstruction and modernization of native industrial factories” to standardize and generalize the Kimhwa County mannequin and start making use of it to different areas and factories. The committee chosen the town of Kaesong and three counties (Jaeryong, Yonthan and Usi), in addition to roughly 200 factories, for reconstruction and modernization.[5] Based mostly on the committee’s identify and the considerably bigger variety of goal factories in comparison with the 4 cities and counties chosen for the undertaking, we could infer that North Korea was centered on the time on modernizing particular person factories reasonably than comprehensively rebuilding regional economies.
That strategy appears to have lasted by way of the top of the celebration plenary assembly in December 2023. North Korean media supplied solely a gist, reasonably than the complete textual content, of Kim’s conclusion on the plenum, which makes it unimaginable to establish what precisely he mentioned about regional growth. Going by the publicly accessible abstract, nonetheless, Kim neither talked about the time period “regional growth” nor did he talk about metropolis or county growth.
With the launch of the 20×10 Coverage, the “non-permanent central committee for selling the reconstruction and modernization of native industrial factories” was reworked into the “non-permanent central committee for selling regional growth 20×10 coverage.”
Lengthy-standing Curiosity in Regional Growth
A evaluation of North Korean media reveals that the nation’s curiosity in regional growth didn’t begin in 2021 however goes again a lot additional. The variety of articles containing the phrases “regional trade (지방공업)” or “regional financial system (지방경제)” in North Korea’s two important newspapers, Rodong Sinmun, the celebration each day, and Minju Joson, the cupboard each day, elevated considerably not solely in within the wake of the Eighth Occasion Congress in 2021 but in addition in 2011.[6]
.[7]
The leap in 2010 could also be accounted for by North Korea’s emphasis on mild trade. The title of the 2010 New 12 months’s joint editorial, which unveiled North Korea’s coverage priorities for 2010, was “Let Us Deliver A couple of Decisive Flip within the Enchancment of the Folks’s Dwelling Requirements by Vigorously Selling Mild Trade and Agriculture in This 12 months Marking the sixty fifth Founding Anniversary of the Occasion.” There’s a robust connection between regional industries and economies and lightweight trade. This seems to clarify state media’s vital consideration to the phrases “regional trade” and “regional financial system” in 2010 and the primary peak noticed the next yr.[8] Kim’s shift again to the financial system in 2018 allowed for the reemergence of regional financial growth insurance policies, accounting for a second peak that yr. The variety of newspaper articles on regional industries and regional economies peaked for the third time in 2021 after the Eighth Occasion Congress known as for regional growth.
The drop from 2012 to 2017 doubtless was as a result of giant quantity of articles in 2012 that mourned the demise of Kim Jong Il and the launch in March 2013 of the second byungjin coverage, or the simultaneous growth of the financial system and nuclear forces, which lasted till the coverage shifted again to the financial system in 2018. Though byungjin, in idea, known as for parallel growth, in actuality, it prioritized nuclear weapons growth. A evaluation of Rodong Sinmun and Minju Joson reveals that there’s an inverse correlation between the variety of articles mentioning “regional trade” or “regional financial system” and “munitions trade (군수공업)” or “protection trade (국방공업).” This interpretation can be supported by an increase from 2012 to 2017 within the variety of articles containing “protection science (국방과학),” which is usually related to nuclear weapons (Determine 3). This development peaked in 2017 when North Korea’s byungjin coverage culminated in take a look at firings of the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). There was one other uptick within the quantity of articles mentioning “regional trade” or “regional financial system” in 2018 when North Korea declared a shift from byungjin to a coverage of “concentrating all efforts on the socialist financial development.”
This would appear to point that army expenditure is a direct impediment to financial growth, notably regional financial growth. In different phrases, North Korea may solely totally commit itself to regional growth when army spending was deprioritized. The coverage of regional financial growth, which North Korea has emphasised since roughly 2010, was pushed apart for a while as army tensions elevated, leading to Pyongyang’s prioritization of nationwide protection. In that mild, we could say the 20×10 Coverage started as early as 2010 however solely began gaining traction in 2021.
Based mostly on the inverse correlation mentioned above, North Korea’s elevated concentrate on weapons growth for the reason that celebration congress in 2021 has been a stumbling block to the implementation of its regional growth coverage. This may occasionally clarify what could have been a disagreement between Kim Jong Un and the remainder of the management over the 20×10 Coverage. It’s attainable that Kim introduced this main coverage for the brand new yr not on the year-end celebration plenary assembly in 2023 however two weeks afterward as a result of he and the highest management weren’t aligned on the feasibility of the 20×10 Coverage. Most North Korean officers could have assessed they might not have the ability to all of the sudden expedite regional growth attributable to ongoing protection spending, whereas Kim could have believed regional growth shouldn’t be slowed down.
Conclusion
Like all international locations’ financial insurance policies, the final word purpose of North Korea’s financial coverage is enhancing the individuals’s livelihood. Nevertheless, North Korea has hardly ever prioritized insurance policies instantly associated to mild trade or regional economies. Its civilian financial system has typically taken a again seat to heavy trade, protection sectors, and the capital, Pyongyang. On this context, the “Regional Growth 20×10 Coverage,” launched in January 2024, is a uncommon occasion the place North Korea is giving the civilian financial system foremost assist on the celebration, authorities and army ranges, setting this coverage aside from comparable earlier initiatives.
Whereas it could appear that the 20×10 Coverage was abruptly launched throughout Kim Jong Un’s coverage speech in January 2024, it’s an extension of a coverage that had been examined in Kimhwa County since 2021. North Korea already introduced on the Eighth Occasion Congress in January 2021 a regional financial growth technique centered on cities and counties. The Kimhwa County case demonstrated a complete transformation of whole cities and counties reasonably than merely modernizing a number of factories. Kim Jong Un accelerated a plan to roll out this mannequin nationwide by launching the 20×10 Coverage, pledging private duty for its success.
It’s straightforward to presume {that a} sudden acceleration of the 20×10 Coverage could be challenged at a number of ranges. Nevertheless, because the plan continues to be in its early levels, it will be higher to develop analytical frameworks from varied views reasonably than dashing to judgment. North Korea’s regional financial growth technique, which has been in movement for a minimum of three and as much as fifteen years in the past, ought to be understood from an extended historic perspective.
If we take into account North Korea’s efforts since 2008 to determine analysis and academic establishments together with industrial services centered on cities and counties, we could view the 20×10 Coverage by way of the lens of a “regional innovation system.” In that vein, the following article will flip again the clock to 2008 and discover North Korea’s analysis organizations that make up the core pillars of the nation’s regional innovation system, together with the Digital Enterprise Analysis Institute (전자업무연구소).
This analysis was financially supported by the Institute for Peace and Unification Research (IPUS) at Seoul Nationwide College underneath the undertaking “Laying the Groundwork for Unification and Peace.”
