In Yemen, Trump risks falling into an ‘airpower trap’ that has drawn past US presidents into costly wars

Within the first 100 days of his second time period, U.S. President Donald Trump has proven a willingness to lean on airpower when his administration decides that army power is critical overseas.

To this point, the second Trump administration has launched restricted airstrikes in Somalia and carried out a weekslong air marketing campaign in opposition to the Iranian-aligned Houthis who rule most of Yemen. The president has additionally threatened direct strikes in opposition to Iran itself ought to talks on a brand new nuclear deal collapse.

This flip to airpower for Trump is smart to me. Airpower is affordable in comparison with floor wars, and it often comes with fewer casualties for these conducting the strikes. This helps clarify why U.S. leaders, together with Trump as a self-proclaimed “anti-war president,” usually discover it engaging.

But when the Trump administration shouldn’t be cautious, it may fall into what army strategists informally name the “airpower entice.” This occurs when the acknowledged goals of army power are too large for airpower alone to attain, doubtlessly resulting in a face-saving escalation of battle that might – if historical past is a information – attract floor forces from the U.S. or their native allies.

U.S. presidents resembling Lyndon Johnson, Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama all fell into this entice. In Vietnam, the Balkans and Syria, respectively, all ended up with far larger wars than they bargained for, with penalties for civilian casualties, worldwide peace and injury to America’s status overseas.

As an professional on U.S. nationwide safety coverage and the Center East area, I imagine the Trump administration is in peril of falling into the airpower entice in Yemen and will doubtlessly do the identical in Iran ought to it elect to make use of direct power in opposition to Tehran. Recognizing this army and historic danger, and choosing some type of off ramp from continued airstrikes, may be the very best hope the U.S. authorities has to keep away from an extra escalation into full-scale conflict.

The bounds of air bombardment

Analysis exhibits airpower is handiest when it’s used for restricted goals – issues like taking out leaders of terrorist teams or degrading rival capabilities – or in assist of floor operations for extra formidable ends, like bolstering or overturning governments.

Given the sophistication of U.S. airpower, a standard fallacy amongst American strategists particularly is to suppose large strategic good points could be achieved solely by dropping bombs from above.

However when airpower alone fails, leaders can really feel the strain to broaden the scope of battle and find yourself with larger army commitments than anticipated.

Johnson’s preliminary airpower-only technique for trying to cease communism in South Vietnam failed miserably, resulting in his determination to commit half 1,000,000 U.S. troops into conflict. That expanded battle presaged years of conflict, with huge humanitarian and political penalties for folks in Southeast Asia and America, in addition to lasting reputational injury to the U.S.

Apprehensive about U.S. and NATO credibility, Clinton escalated airstrikes – almost to the purpose of introducing floor troops – for the formidable finish of stopping genocide within the Balkans through the early Nineties. Likewise, Obama’s preliminary airpower-only technique to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State group shortly faltered, main Obama, beneath intense strain at dwelling and overseas, to introduce 1000’s of floor troops to fight the group’s territorial good points throughout Syria and Iraq.

In every case, counting on airpower alone finally failed to satisfy their goals.

The airpower entice in Yemen

There are causes to imagine that situations in Yemen imply that Trump, too, could possibly be falling into an identical entice.

Trump has adopted an airpower-only technique to “utterly annihilate” the Houthis, a robust insurgent motion that every one however gained the latest Yemeni civil conflict. The proximate explanation for the air marketing campaign, a coverage inaugurated by the Biden administration and expanded dramatically by Trump, is to revive the free circulate of delivery within the Crimson Sea that the Houthis have disrupted by power to protest Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The early indicators are that this air marketing campaign isn’t going nicely.

Regardless of the U.S. burning by way of finite munitions provides at a value of US$1 billion to bomb at the very least 800 websites since March 15, the Houthis are undeterred and the amount of Crimson Sea delivery stays as depressed as ever. Houthi assaults on U.S. ships and Israel proceed. A Houthi missile narrowly missed Israel’s Ben-Gurion airport on Might 4.

In reality, the direct assaults on the Houthis and the quickly rising casualty depend amongst Yemeni civilians from the Trump administration’s bombing marketing campaign seem like strengthening the Houthis’ political place in Yemen. In a very stunning case, U.S. bombs reportedly hit an African migrant camp, killing and injuring dozens of individuals.

The humanitarian disaster from the brutal bombing marketing campaign by the Saudi-led coalition in opposition to the Houthis within the late 2010s had an identical impact.

Airpower performed an enormous half then, too. The Saudi coalition, supported by the U.S., engaged in some 25,000 air raids in opposition to the Houthis, killing or maiming roughly 19,000 civilians. But regardless of such overwhelming power, the Houthis stored seizing territory and ultimately gained the civil conflict, in keeping with specialists.

They’ve been the nation’s de facto rulers ever since.

Now, Trump is exploring choices to additional escalate to defeat the Houthis. Reviews point out his administration is contemplating arming, coaching and enabling anti-Houthi resistance fighters who’re loosely affiliated with Yemen’s authorities in exile to launch floor operations.

Between diplomacy and quagmire

Proxies are a standard device U.S. leaders flip to when caught within the airpower entice. Generally these proxies fulfill American coverage goals, such because the Kurdish Folks’s Safety Models, or YPG, which helped the U.S. defeat the Islamic state caliphate in 2019.

Typically, U.S. proxies fail on each strategic and humanitarian phrases, resulting in additional escalation, strategic quagmires for the U.S., and lack of life and political sovereignty for the folks beneath assault. South Vietnam was an instructive instance.

Riven by corruption, poor governance, weak point and political infighting, the South Vietnamese military and authorities proved so ineffective at preventing the North Vietnamese that Johnson determined to launch a floor conflict as soon as U.S. airpower failed.

In the present day, the anti-Houthi resistance in Yemen appears to be like much more just like the South Vietnamese authorities than the Kurdish YPG. In accordance with a 2025 report from the Soufan Heart, a safety suppose tank, the anti-Houthi forces are poorly skilled and thought of incapable of pulling off victories over the Houthis with out main U.S. assist.

In the meantime, the anti-Houthi resistance consists of an estimated 85,000 fighters, in contrast with some 350,000 for the Houthis.

Absent persevering with the air conflict or escalating it right into a extra all-encompassing battle, U.S. officers can nonetheless pursue diplomacy with a view to attempt to discover a political answer to the Yemen battle.

Regardless of the Trump’s administration public threats, the U.S. is already negotiating with the Houthis’ important sponsor, Iran.

For his or her half, the Houthis proceed to insist that they are going to cease attacking ships within the Crimson Sea if the U.S.-backed Israeli conflict in Gaza halts, one thing that occurred through the latest Gaza ceasefire.

The Trump administration may think about searching for alternate options, resembling direct or oblique talks, if it desires to keep away from getting caught in a widening battle in Yemen. Historical past is filled with examples of what occurs when airpower takes on a logic of its personal.