The civil battle in Syria is without doubt one of the world’s largest proxy conflicts that’s nonetheless ongoing, albeit a frozen one immediately. America, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel all have zones of affect in Syria immediately, full of dozens of factions, all with totally different finish objectives.
Japanese Syria witnessed direct fight between the US navy and Russian mercenaries, which might not solely set the tempo of the frozen battle in Syria however an total standoff between America and Russia.
The next battle between Wagner and US particular forces would gas the Kremlin’s paranoia about Russia’s typical navy capabilities and set the temple for nuclear threats throughout their invasion of Ukraine.
The Battle of Khasham
Towards the backdrop of the rise of ISIS, an American-led coalition carried out counterterrorism operations in Iraq and Syria, with US particular forces and Marines supplementing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) within the latter.
On the night time of February seventh, 2018, a big power of Syrian navy supplemented by the infamous Wagner Group was amassing close to the Conoco fields of Deir Ezzor the place just a few dozen American particular operations forces, and SDF have been working as a patrol base. A number of dozen T-72 tanks and armored personnel carriers would complement the Syrians and Russians.
The Conoco fields are wealthy with oil the Syrian authorities has desperately needed again to assist fight international sanctions. Wagner, a paramilitary that makes most of its funding by way of the black market, sees the oil fields as future earnings.
The Syrian detachment and Wagner mercenaries would instigate the Battle of Khasham by firing on the American outpost round 10:30 pm. The Pentagon would instantly name and confront the Russian Protection Ministry, and Moscow, underneath immense strain and worry of admittance, instantly disavowed that they directed the assault.
After calling Russia’s bluff, the Pentagon would give the US Air Pressure the inexperienced gentle to conduct a strong aerial assault in opposition to typical forces not seen because the preliminary 2003 invasion of Iraq. All kinds of F-15s, F-22s, Apache’s, AC-130s, B-52s, and MQ-9 Reaper drones would all participate within the counterstrike in opposition to the Russian mercenaries and their Syrian counterparts.
Together with US airpower, Marine Corps artillery pounded the Syrian military and Wagner positions, giving cowl to the SOF and their SDF allies. A whole bunch of Wagner and the Syrian navy have been killed in lower than an hour, with most of their tools destroyed.
Leaked Russian audio and testimonies said how vastly superior the People have been to them and that their commanders left them to slaughter. It grew to become evident the Russians and Syrians have been vastly unprepared for a standard engagement and assumed a present of power would persuade the People to withdraw.
Battlefield Assessments
The Battle of Khasham was not only a bodily blow to the Kremlin but additionally an ethical one. Surviving mercenaries would inform horror tales, and thru fight expertise, the group by no means confronted such an adversary in comparison with extra unconventional militias and disorganized third-world armies.
America enacted a serious deterrence that Russia or any of their proxies would by no means once more by power try and assault American troops instantly in Syria.
Moscow, which for years denied management or direct authority over the Wagner Group, would lastly admit its backing and creation of the mercenary group, as seen in Vladimir Putin’s speech in regards to the group final yr after the failed mutiny.
Putin’s admittance over the Kremlin’s management over Wagner for years will be assessed that Moscow’s high brass knowingly and arranged the assault by way of their pro-Assad regime militias and their mercenaries, because the group’s shadowy operations for years gave Russia believable deniability.
Below aerial supremacy, the Wagner Group and Assad regime forces have been annihilated akin to the Iraqi Republican Guard of their two wars with the USA. With a navy targeted on floor operations and artillery, Russia’s air energy couldn’t match the US even when they have been known as in to complement the assault at Khasham.
The Confrontation Fueled Russian Fears of Direct Army Confrontation with the West
The Battle of Khasham gave Russia its worst fears—that regardless of increasing its protection trade and affect in varied areas over the previous a number of years, the nation nonetheless can not compete with the US—particularly in a direct navy confrontation, albeit by way of mercenaries and Syrian proxies.
Russia is a extra grounded navy, whereas America focuses on air superiority doctrine. Moscow was prepared to permit their then-prized Wagner Group and the Syrian military to be liquidated as a result of they didn’t have sufficient belongings in Syria to discourage and power a retreat of US forces underneath Central Command (CENTCOM).
Earlier than the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s navy progress stalled resulting from corruption, even with key victories from backing the Syrian military within the civil battle. Russia’s solely plane service by no means obtained off the bottom; the T-14 Armata won’t be despatched to Ukraine resulting from deficiencies in parts and expense, and the premier Su-57 solely has just a few energetic items.
Compared, US air energy is at the moment at new heights with premier F-35s, F-16 block-Cs, and the F-22, which may dogfight with any plane on the planet. This additionally doesn’t embrace fast response forces, and the worldwide projection capabilities of the USA navy in Russia don’t match.
Adjoining to the Battle of Khasham, Russia additionally tried to play a bluff over Turkish airspace, and Ankara, calling Moscow’s bluff, shot down an Su-25 over their airspace after just a few seconds, killing the pilots.
How Khasham Performs in Ukraine Right now
America isn’t just a superior rival to Russia economically, militarily, and diplomatically, additionally it is a founding member of NATO—a corporation intertwined with the Kremlin’s renewed imperial ambitions.
Russia has suffered casualty charges and tools losses in Ukraine, not seen within the nation since World Battle Two. NATO, within the meantime, has not suffered casualties or main tools losses as help to Ukraine has been gradual with trickled quantities.
Everything of NATO focuses on air energy, with most members fielding F-35 and F-16 variants, with some utilizing the Gripens. Russia at the moment doesn’t have the air energy, manpower, and armored automobiles to have a direct battle with NATO, and due to this, Moscow depends on their final trump card—the nuclear menace.
Over the previous two years, Russia has repeatedly used nuclear threats to dissuade Western navy help from reaching Ukraine. These “crimson strains” have been damaged from the deliveries of HIMARS, Leopard Tanks, storm-shadow and scalp missiles, and up to date strikes on Russian territory by Western weaponry.
The Battle of Khasham, initiated by Russian mercenaries, solely heightened the Kremlin’s deep fears of direct typical battle with a navy that at the moment excels their very own on aerial supremacy, fast response, and power projection. Due to this, Russia will proceed to make use of the nuclear menace card to stall for wider manufacturing and future negotiations.
Realizing they don’t at the moment have the capabilities for a wider battle with America or NATO, Russia will proceed to make use of the nuclear menace card to not solely purchase time for better manufacturing but additionally to attempt to set the tempo for future negotiations.
In regards to the Writer: Julian McBride
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist, SOFREP contributor, and unbiased journalist born in New York. He experiences and paperwork the plight of individuals world wide who’re affected by conflicts, rogue geopolitics, and battle, and in addition tells the tales of battle victims whose voices are by no means heard. Julian is the founder and director of the Reflections of Battle Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which goals to inform the tales of the victims of battle by way of artwork remedy. As a former Marine, he makes use of this system not solely to assist heal PTSD but additionally to share folks’s tales by way of artwork, which conveys “the message of the brutality of battle higher than most information organizations.”
