Turkey’s Overreach in Syria: Erdogan Is ‘Playing with Fire’

In a latest Overseas Coverage article, Steven Cook dinner and I highlighted how Turkey could also be overplaying its hand in Syria. With occasions evolving quickly, evidently Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now goals to dominate Syria’s political future, sidelining each Moscow and Tehran.

To say Erdogan is “taking part in with hearth” is an understatement. His maneuvers ought to deeply concern the incoming Trump administration, as Erdogan will seemingly pitch Turkey as the answer to Syria’s woes. Nevertheless, permitting Turkey unchecked affect in a post-Assad Syria dangers destabilizing the area additional.

Turkey’s Backing of HTS

Ankara seems to be grooming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Syria’s new political order.

Turkey portrays HTS as able to establishing a bureaucratic state that brings regulation and order whereas serving Syria’s various inhabitants. This seemingly explains Turkey’s provide of army help to HTS—an alarming gesture from a NATO member.

HTS, nevertheless, stays a jihadist group rooted in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It celebrated Hamas’ October 7 assaults on Israel, and its management nonetheless threatens to “conquer Jerusalem.”

HTS chief Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani sends contradictory messages. He guarantees to guard minority rights and guarantee Syrians’ security whereas his justice chief insists on implementing Sharia regulation and barring ladies from judicial roles. Erdogan believes he can management Jawlani and mould HTS to his imaginative and prescient, however his final aim stays clear: destroying the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Syria. This zone, led by the Democratic Union Celebration (PYD) and guarded by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has been falsely labeled by Erdogan as a menace to Turkey attributable to hyperlinks with the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK). Whereas PKK affiliations exist, the PYD and SDF have targeted solely on combating ISIS and making a secure house for Syrian Kurds—not threatening Turkey.

Erdogan’s Home Agenda

Erdogan’s obsession with dismantling the Kurdish zone serves a home goal. By portraying a troublesome stance on terrorism, he distracts Turkish residents from his administration’s financial failures. Reviews counsel that Turkey already has 16,000–18,000 troops in Syria and is mobilizing alongside the border close to Kobane, poised to get rid of SDF and PYD management. Erdogan seemingly envisions establishing a buffer zone populated with Syrian refugees at the moment in Turkey.

Ignoring Moscow and Tehran

Erdogan’s confidence stems from his perception that he has outmaneuvered Russia and Iran. Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan lately revealed that Erdogan warned Moscow and Tehran towards backing Assad, claiming their trigger was misplaced. Assad’s subsequent flight to Russia underscores Erdogan’s rising leverage. Emboldened, Erdogan appears decided to resolve Syria’s future with out critical regard for the pursuits of Russia, Iran, and even the US.

What Will Trump Do?

The important query stays: how will President-elect Trump reply?

Trump’s latest comment about Erdogan’s “unfriendly takeover” could possibly be interpreted in a number of methods. He may ignore Syria totally as a part of his “America First” disengagement coverage, or he may use Syria as leverage towards Russia and Iran to resolve the Ukraine struggle and curb Israel-Iran tensions. Both state of affairs leaves Erdogan free to pursue his ambitions, as Washington and different powers stay distracted.

Vital Concerns

Regardless of Erdogan’s momentum, there are basic points that can not be ignored:

HTS’ Jihadist Roots

HTS has deep ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Celebrating HTS as a nationwide liberation drive is dangerously naïve. How can an extremist group that brazenly threatens regional stability govern a pluralistic Syria?

Abandoning Syria’s Kurds

Ought to the U.S. and the West abandon their Kurdish allies in favor of Erdogan’s imaginative and prescient? Labeling the PYD and SDF as “terrorists,” as Erdogan does, is disingenuous. A simple settlement on safety ensures between Erdogan and the PYD management may deal with Turkey’s issues.

Lengthy-term Stability

Excluding the Kurds from Syria’s future ensures instability. A Turkish struggle on the SDF wouldn’t solely destabilize the area but in addition create a gap for ISIS to regroup and launch a brand new marketing campaign to ascertain its Caliphate.

Erdogan might consider he holds all of the playing cards, however his aggressive technique carries immense dangers—not only for Syria however for all the area. Ignoring these risks may result in long-term penalties which can be unimaginable to reverse.

In regards to the Creator: 

Sinan Ciddi is a Senior Fellow on Turkey on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, in Washington DC and an Affiliate Professor of Safety Research on the Marine Corps College’s Command and Workers School. You may comply with him on X @SinanCiddi