Europe’s Justified Concerns About a Second Trump Presidency – UCL EUROPE Blog

John Peet

Few European leaders have welcomed Donald Trump’s election victory in America (a notable exception being Hungary’s Viktor Orbán). That he’ll management not simply the White Home but in addition each homes of Congress and, in impact, the Supreme Court docket can solely make them extra involved. An unconstrained and vengeful President Trump, with no fear about securing a second time period, may rapidly turn out to be a nightmare for Europe, in three broad areas.

The primary and most pressing is geopolitics, significantly Europe’s future safety. Trump’s obsessive view that different NATO international locations are usually not spending sufficient on defence, making America bear an unfair share of the burden of defending Europe, is well-known. So is his conviction that he can and can finish Russia’s battle in Ukraine on day considered one of his presidency. Not surprisingly, many in Europe have concluded that Russia’s Vladimir Putin would be the largest winner and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky the largest loser from a second Trump presidency.

But this will show too gloomy. Since Trump’s earlier time period, most European international locations have considerably elevated their navy spending (Poland now plans to spend a whopping 5% of GDP on defence, a much bigger share than the USA). America’s change of focus in the direction of containing China has additionally lengthy been clear. As for Putin, it’s true that Trump likes robust leaders, even when not democratically elected. However he additionally hates shedding, and a Russian victory in Ukraine could be a giant defeat for America. What is apparent is {that a} second Trump presidency signifies that Europe should do far more to defend itself.

A second space of fear is local weather change. Europe has lengthy been a pioneer each in recognising the fact of local weather change and in doing as a lot as it could possibly to struggle it. But Trump’s scepticism over local weather change was evident in his first time period, when he unilaterally pulled out of the Paris climate-change settlement, and it isn’t going to vary. He’s possible once more to withdraw from the Paris settlement early in his second time period, and he’s already promising to “drill, drill” for extra oil and gasoline. The temper of local weather activists at this week’s COP 29 summit in Baku has darkened.

Because it occurs, America has not too long ago been decarbonising its economic system nearly as quick as Europe, and regardless of Trump’s local weather scepticism it’s prone to proceed doing so. The large driver is the inexorable decline within the worth of renewable vitality. But what should still be a fear is the message a second Trump presidency sends to the opposite large carbon emitters, particularly China and India. Mixed strain from the West had helped these international locations take local weather change extra significantly. That strain will probably be sharply diminished underneath a second Trump presidency.

The third subject that issues Europe is commerce and the economic system. Trump has typically proclaimed his perception that “tariff” is essentially the most lovely phrase within the dictionary, and through his marketing campaign he promised to impose tariffs on European exports of 10-20% and on Chinese language exports of as a lot as 60%. For some such measures he may have congressional approval, which is not going to be computerized even when the Republicans management each homes. Lawsuits in American courts is also an impediment. But the president has remarkably broad authority to impose commerce tariffs on safety grounds, so Europe is true to count on him to do exactly that.

Each expertise and mainstream financial evaluation affirm that commerce wars are dangerous for everyone, together with those that begin them. Greater inflation and decrease development can due to this fact be anticipated on either side of the Atlantic, aggravated to some extent by efforts to tighten up on immigration. Even so, there are causes to concern that Europe will lose out greater than America from a tit-for-tat imposition of commerce tariffs. Europe is extra uncovered to world commerce than America, and it collectively additionally has a big commerce surplus. Furthermore the European economic system is notably weak in contrast with America, largely as a result of Germany is doing so badly.

A footnote to this issues post-Brexit Britain. Some declare that Trump, who supported Brexit, favours Britain over the European Union, to the extent of exempting his British associates from any commerce tariffs and even actively selling a bilateral free-trade deal. But the fact is that such a commerce deal is unlikely to materialise, and that Britain will probably be a giant loser in any commerce battle. Certainly, if the second Trump presidency accelerates the formation of rival and competing world commerce blocs, Britain could endure greater than most. Even those that believed in Brexit could have to simply accept that, with one other Trump presidency forward, it might have occurred on the worst potential time.

John Peet is Affiliate editor at The Economist and a member of the UCL European Institute’s Advisory Board.

Word: The views expressed on this submit are these of the creator, and never of the UCL European Institute, nor of UCL.

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